On The Labrador By-Election Results

It comes as little surprise to me that Penashue was unable to regain his seat in Labrador.  Frankly, the biggest surprise was the number of votes that he was able to garner.  In my opinion, someone who stepped down for cheating on the last campaign should gather exactly zero votes.

Of course, the Conservative Spin Machine is immediately trying to turn a defeat into propaganda:

What is surprising is the collapse of the Liberal support during this by-election.  When this by-election was called the Liberals had a 43-point lead in the polls.  Since electing Justin Trudeau as leader and having him personally campaign there, they have dropped 20 points in Labrador.  That’s a significant drop in only a few weeks.  Labradorians were able to see firsthand how Justin Trudeau is in over his head. 

Objectively, this claim is utter nonsense.  Frankly, this is typical of the Karl Rove-inspired politics that Harper has been importing into Canada.  It boils down to taking anything that happens and trying to spin it into an attack on your adversaries.  The attempt to use it as an attack on Justin Trudeau smacks more of desperation to me.

 A closer look at the numbers over the last couple of elections is much more instructive:

[hide]Canadian federal election, 2008
Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±pp	Expenditures
	Liberal	Todd Russell	5,426	70.28	+19.75	$26,887
	New Democratic	Phyllis Artiss	1,378	17.85	+8.77	$5,886
	Conservative	Lacey Lewis	615	7.97	-31.70	$15,728
	Green	Nyssa Christine McLeod	302	3.91	+3.19
Total valid votes/Expense limit			7,721	99.15	$81,667
Total rejected ballots			66	0.85	+0.40
Turnout			7,787	38.60	-19.8
Eligible voters			20,175	–	–
	Liberal hold		Swing	+5.49

[hide] v   t   e Canadian federal election, 2011: Labrador
Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±pp
	Conservative	Peter Penashue	4,256	39.81	+31.84
	Liberal	Todd Russell	4,177	39.07	-31.21
	New Democratic	Jacob Larkin	2,120	19.83	+1.98
	Green	George C.R. Barrett	139	1.30	-2.61
Total valid votes			10,692	100.00
Total rejected ballots			52	0.48	-0.37
Turnout			10,744	53.44	+14.84
Eligible voters			20,104
	Conservative gain from Liberal		Swing		+31.5%

[hide] v   t   e Canadian federal by-election, May 13, 2013: Labrador
Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±pp
	Liberal	Yvonne Jones	5,814	48.21	+9.14%
	Conservative	Peter Penashue	3,922	32.52	-7.29%
	New Democratic	Harry Borlase	2,273	18.85	-0.98%
	Libertarian	Norman Andrews	50	0.41	-
Total valid votes/Expense limit			12,059	100.00
Total rejected ballots
Turnout			12,059	59.55	+6.11%
Eligible voters			20,251
Called on the resignation of Peter Penashue, March 14, 2013
	Liberal gain from Conservative		Swing		+9.14%

What we really see in these numbers is a collapse in the voter turnout in 2008, with it dropping to 38.6%, followed by a gradual recovery to 59.55% turnout in yesterday's byelection.

Penashue barely won in the 2011 election, winning on a margin of less than 100 ballots.  Hardly a ringing endorsement of support for Penashue in the first place.

Yvonne Jones took the riding in the by-election with a 5,814 votes - slightly more than the 5,426 votes Todd Russell won with in 2008.  In comparison, Penashue took the riding in 2011 with 4,256 votes and went down to defeat with 3,922 votes last night.

Practically speaking, this sounds to me more like a greater level of voter engagement took place, and a lot of people who sat on their thumbs in either 2008 or 2011 came out and voted.

Given that this by-election was already underway when Justin Trudeau became the Liberal leader, and the lavish promises made on Penashue's behalf by the Conservatives during the latter half of the campaign, it seems to me that the Conservatives are reaching pretty far to try and spin this as some kind of voter comment on Justin Trudeau as Liberal leader.

In fact, since this is the first time that the Harper Conservatives have lost a seat on a by-election, I would say that it seems to me much more of a condemnation of the Conservative party which keeps on playing by its own arbitrary rulebook.