On the CBC news this morning, it was pointed out that there is an 'inverted yield curve' in the bond return rates, a clue that a recession is a distinct risk right now.
What is an "Inverted Yield Curve"? Basically, it means that there is a point in the bond interest rates where the premium for borrowing money for longer drops below the rate for shorter term borrowing. Sure enough, the US bond rate drops between 2 and 3 year bonds (4 basis points - a small amount, but present nonetheless.
Timing wise, it means that the US economy is apt to start looking ugly just around the time that George W. Bush leaves office. Whoever follows Mr. Bush II is going to have a particularly hideous little job to do cleaning up the economic mess that results from BushCo's lovely little wars.
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